Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) Exchange Rate Surges as Some ECB Policymakers Argued for a Deeper Rate Cut

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Euros (EUR)

AUD/EUR Conversion Rate Predicted to Rally after Australian Labour Market Data Eclipsed Expectations

The Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) exchange rate strengthened by around 0.8% towards the close of Thursday’s European session.

Despite the fact that tumbling global equity prices caused heightened demand for safe-haven assets during Thursday’s European session, the Australian Dollar rallied versus many of its peers. The appreciation is partly the result of rising Chinese stocks after the Shanghai Composite Index ended the Asian session nearly 2% higher, but mostly in response to much better-than-expected domestic labour market data. December’s Employment Change saw -1,000 employed which was significantly better than the median market forecast -10,000. In addition, December’s Unemployment Rate held at 5.8% despite the market consensus of a rise to 5.9%.

ANZ economist Justin Fabo said that the employment numbers ‘should be viewed positively.’

‘Both employment and the unemployment rate beat expectations. While sample rotation has boosted jobs growth in recent months, and may again in January, labour market trends remain positive,’ he added.

Commonwealth bank economist Gareth Aird said that the figures were ‘better than expected.’

‘Whichever way you slice it the Australian labour market looks in good shape,’ he said. ‘After two comprehensively strong reports the odds sat with a soft report today.  But the publication received was not as soft as the market was expecting.’

The Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.6413 during Thursday’s European session.

EUR/AUD Conversion Rate Predicted to Hold Losses despite Positive German Growth in 2015

In the early stages of Thursday’s London session the single currency rallied versus most of its major peers in response to German economic data. Non-seasonally adjusted German Gross Domestic Product met with expectations of 1.7% growth on the year in 2015. However, gains were short-lived as diving European stocks weighed on demand. Additional depreciation can be attributed to the publication of minutes from the most recent European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The minutes revealed that some policymakers voted for a deeper rate cut.

‘On the one hand, there was a desire by some to ease more than they did, but on the other, there was quite a lot of opposition to doing more sovereign QE unless it’s a last resort. The implication is ‘let’s wait and see’,’ said Justin Knight, a rates strategist at UBS. ‘Under current conditions, we don’t think there will be further major policy announcements from the ECB.’

The Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) exchange rate dropped to a low of 0.6318 during Thursday’s European session.

Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast: Australian Home Loans and Eurozone Trade Balance in Focus

Given the absence of further economic data pertaining to Australia and Europe, the Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) exchange rate is likely to hold gains for the remainder of Thursday’s European session. As we enter into the Australasian session, however, November’s Australian Home Loans data has the potential to provoke changes. Later during Friday’s European session, Eurozone Trade Balance data may provoke AUD/EUR volatility. However, US Advance Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence reports will be far more likely to impact on the aforementioned exchange rate.

The Australian Dollar to Euro (AUD/EUR) exchange rate climbed to a high of 0.6429 during Thursday’s Australian session.

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