Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: US Inflation, RBA Minutes Ahead

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The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate jumped in Thursday’s South Pacific trading after upbeat Australian data emerged and a lack in of confidence loomed over upcoming US data.

Recent US data releases have flooded investors with disappointment and fears have risen that a Federal Reserve rate hike may not be occurring quite as soon as forecast. Furthermore, the favourable Australian labour market data released overnight has also dashed hopes of a rate hike.

Australia’s Unemployment Rate slipped from a positively revised 6.2% to 6.1% in March—an event made possible by Australian Employment Change coming in at 37.7K rather than the 15.0K forecast.

Industry expert Allan Yu commented: ‘The data supports the outlook that a US rate increase will come later than sooner and any adjustment will be slow and measured. China’s rebound shows the prevailing market perception that weak economy will spur more stimulus measures.’

Friday’s US Consumer Price Index could put a cat amongst the pigeons with a fall in inflation likely to see investors readjust their bets for a Fed rate hike further into the future.

Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast

Thursday’s North American trading will see the release of US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims ecostats which are all expected to have a moderate impact on the US Dollar exchange rate.

Additionally, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve will be releasing its monthly index which could also play a significant part in ‘Buck’ movement. Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout Thursday’s session, which could also impact the way the US Dollar trades.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar will be reacting to any global developments in coming days as Australian domestic data is thin on the ground toward the close of the week.

However, next week could be an interesting time for the ‘Aussie’ with the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) April meeting minutes.

Wednesday will be another major day for the Australian economy with the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) released.

The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate is trading at 0.7787. The US Dollar to Australian Dollar (USD/AUD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.2845.

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